By Ronny Ndiema

East Africa’s Bid for AU Leadership

The African Union (AU) officially closed the candidacy window for its next Commission chairperson on August 6, 2024, with elections set for February 2025. For the first time, the AU is prioritizing leadership from East Africa, a region that has long been underrepresented in the organization’s top executive role. This shift highlights the urgent need to address leadership gaps within the East African Community (EAC), which has struggled to exert strong influence in continental decision-making.

An East African chairperson could provide a significant boost to regional integration and development. Leadership deficiencies in the EAC have often slowed progress on key political and economic issues, and a stronger presence at the AU level could help unify regional strategies. The main candidate from the East African Community, Kenya’s former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, will bring the diplomatic experience needed to drive this vision. His potential victory could reshape East Africa’s role in influencing the future of the continent.

East Africa’s Growing Influence

East Africa’s role within the AU has steadily grown. The East African Community (EAC) is one of the continent’s most advanced regional blocs, with a Common Market established in 2010 and a goal of achieving a single currency. The AU’s decision to prioritize East African candidates for the Commission chairperson reflects the region’s growing political and economic importance.

Former Kenya’s Prime Minister Hon. Raila Odinga and an AU Commission chair candidate

With Raila Odinga as a key contender, East Africa is poised to assert its leadership within the AU, a move that could usher in a new era for the region and the continent.

Strengthening Regional Integration

East Africa has taken significant steps in regional integration, offering a model for other African regions to follow. The East African Community (EAC) has seen notable growth in intra-regional trade, which contributes around 20% of its total trade, higher than several other African economic blocs. In comparison is the intra-regional trade within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) of about 10% reflecting the varying levels of integration.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), launched in 2021, aims to create a single African market, and an East African AU Commission chairperson could help drive its successful implementation. Leveraging the EAC’s integration experience, such a leader could promote easier cross-border trade, harmonized tariffs, and infrastructure development. Raila Odinga’s extensive background in infrastructure development makes him particularly well suited to expand continental projects like the Northern Corridor, reducing transport costs and enhancing trade.

Diplomatic and Political Influence

East Africa has increasingly played a pivotal role in African diplomacy. Kenya has been at the forefront of peace negotiations, from mediating Sudan’s 2005 peace deal to facilitating South Sudan’s 2011 independence. The region’s peacebuilding experience is a valuable asset, and an East African AU chairperson could help address ongoing conflicts across the continent, from Somalia to the Sahel.

Raila Odinga, representing Kenya’s diplomatic legacy, brings a wealth of experience that could further advance the AU’s role in conflict resolution. Under his leadership, the AU could strengthen its role in conflict resolution, with the region’s experience in managing the largest peacekeeping mission in Africa, AMISOM, further guiding continental peace efforts.

“An East African chairperson will need to navigate these internal differences and present a united regional front while advancing Africa-wide goals.”

In addition to peacekeeping, East Africa has made strides in democratic governance, with Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda working toward more transparent electoral systems. An East African AU chairperson could champion the African Charter on Democracy, Elections, and Governance, promoting democratic values and reforms across the continent.

Economic Development

The EAC has experienced impressive economic growth, with an average and expected regional GDP growth rate of 5.5% within 2023 and 2024. Kenya is at the forefront of digital innovation, Tanzania and Uganda are rich in natural resources, and Rwanda is emerging as a technology hub. An East African AU chairperson could push for large-scale infrastructure projects, connecting the region and enhancing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

The East African Railway Master Plan aims to modernize regional rail networks, which could be expanded continent-wide. This aligns with the AU’s Agenda 2063, which envisions Africa as a global powerhouse. By driving projects that connect Africa’s markets, an East African chairperson will boost trade and economic development across the continent.

Given Odinga’s record of accomplishment in infrastructure development, he could lead initiatives that bridge regional gaps, enhancing connectivity for trade and economic growth.

Food Security and Climate Change

Agriculture is the cornerstone of East Africa’s economy, employing over 70% of the population. However, the region faces growing challenges from climate change, particularly droughts, which threaten food security. The World Food Programme (WFP) reports that over 23 million people in the Horn of Africa are facing severe food insecurity due to prolonged droughts.

An East African AU chairperson will push for greater investment in agriculture, particularly climate-smart farming practices, through the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). Promoting sustainable agricultural techniques would be critical to ensuring food security, particularly in a region so vulnerable to climate impacts.

Challenges Ahead

While an East African AU Commission chairperson holds great potential, there are significant challenges to navigate. One of the primary issues will be balancing regional priorities with continental interests. The chairperson must ensure that their leadership serves the entire continent, not just East Africa, to avoid accusations of bias and favoritism.

The diversity within East Africa itself adds complexity. The region includes stable economies like Kenya and Tanzania but also fragile states like South Sudan and Burundi. An East African chairperson will need to navigate these internal differences and present a united regional front while advancing Africa-wide goals.

Competition from other regions, particularly West and North Africa, could also pose challenges. These regions wield considerable influence, with countries like Nigeria and Egypt being economic and political heavyweights. A successful East African chairperson would need to foster continental unity, avoiding regional rivalries that could undermine the AU’s overarching objectives.

Impact of East African Leadership on the African Union’s Future

An East African AU Commission chairperson could have a transformative impact on both the region and the continent. Strengthening regional integration, enhancing diplomatic influence, and driving economic development are among the potential benefits. With Raila Odinga as the leading candidate from EAC, East Africa’s bid for this top leadership role is grounded in strong political experience and vision for Africa’s future.

However, the success of an East African chairperson will depend on their ability to balance regional and continental priorities. If managed effectively, this leadership could position Africa for a prosperous future, leveraging the region’s growing prominence on both the continental and global stages.

These are the writer’s own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints of Liberty Sparks. Do you want to publish in this space? Contact our editors at [email protected] for further clarification.