Charm Offensive in China

Kenya’s President Ruto was busy confronting turbulent international relations on trade, investment, and diplomacy during his state visit to China signing a 24 memorandum of Understanding Agreements with China’s Xi. Marked by controversial statements on US growing protectionist tendencies and neighboring East African States, the dynamics of Kenya’s foreign policy have increasingly become intertwined with praises and criticism. Its strategic location on the African Continent and the East African Community amidst a growing role in regional and international trade places it as crossroads as global powers shift.

Particularly, Kenya is more intertwined within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) championed by China and the ambitions of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) which seeks to enhance intra-African trade as China and the U.S revisit past trade tensions. At the same time, the U.S.’s evolving stance on international trade, notably its growing protectionist tendencies, poses both challenges and opportunities for Kenya.

Kenya’s attempt to deepen ties with China under the BRI is not only reinforcing its strategic position as a player in East Africa but also a means of positioning herself centrally to the broader China-Africa relations. This is particularly relevant amidst U.S shifting stance on foreign policy that has included more isolationist rhetoric and increased trade barriers. A question therefore emergence on Kenya’s balancing act on foreign policy, how it will navigate the emerging complexities, and the implications it is likely to have on trade in the EAC and AfCFTA perspectives.

Kenya’s Role in the Belt and Road Initiative

A massive global infrastructure program, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, is unfolding in Africa with Kenya taking a prominent involvement amidst concerns of debt traps and neo-colonialism. Through BRI projects, Kenya has already seen substantial investments in key sectors such as transport, energy, and telecommunications, most notably the Mombasa-Nairobi railway, as part of the strategy to enhance China-Africa connectivity.

The continued involvement of China is Kenya can be viewed as a source of economic opportunities and strategic advantage for Kenya. The BRI cooperation is critical in providing the much-needed infrastructure funding which key to the long-term economic development goals for the nation under the EAC and AfCFTA frameworks. The Mombasa-Nairobi railway remains the most conspicuous project yet showcasing how Kenya is leveraging relationships with Chinese investments for the modernization of infrastructure, critical requirements for intra-regional and African trade.

Thus, considering the aspiration of the AfCFTA, the participation of the East African nation in the BRI places it as a central player in the African context with her GDP expected to dethrone Ethiopia as the region’s largest in 2025. As a leading EAC and AfCFTA member state, Kenya remains committed to reducing trade barriers in cross continental trade with Chinese investments helping align with this goal. Increasingly implemented and proposed transport and logistical networks through the BRI will enable the country to engage better in cross-border trade and in accessing a wider continental market.

However, this closer alignment with China places Kenya in a delicate balancing act, as it must manage its relations with the United States, which has expressed concerns about China’s growing influence in Africa.

Trump Trade Policy and Implications on Kenya

U.S trade policy under the Trump administration is tending towards increased protectionism and showing retreat elements from multilateral trade agreements. The shifts have raised concerns among African nations including Kenya as the U.S claims to focus more on safeguarding domestic interest as opposed to fostering international trade partnerships. For Kenya, this presents a challenge, especially as it seeks to continue strengthening its economic ties with both the U.S. and China.

Historically, Kenya and the U.S have maintained rich trade relations especially in the agricultural sector where the former exports tea, coffee, and flowers to America. With the growing protectionist policies by the U.S however, this economic nationalism tendencies are a risk to the future of U.S-Africa trade relations. Kenya, along with other African nations, is watching closely as the U.S. imposes tariffs on certain products and withdraws from international trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Paris Climate Agreement.

Therefore, while the U.S continues to be a major Kenyan ally on security and technology fronts, the shifting trade policies are a cause for concern in Kenya’s economic relationships with the U.S and other Western powers. The changing dynamics are certainly forcing Kenya to re-evaluate her trade strategy particularly in regard to global economic landscape which is now highly polarized.

Balancing Chinese and U.S. Interests

Kenya’s foreign policy needs to balance the benefits of its growing relationship with China through the BRI with the necessity of maintaining strong ties with the U.S. and other Western partners. This is particularly important with expected trade frictions as the U.S and European nations shift trade strategies with African Nations that have increasingly aligned with China.

Considerably, Kenya’s ability to continue engaging with both the U.S and China without alienating either side is critical to its economic and trade aspirations. So far, Kenya has been able to leverage its role as a bridge between China and the broader African continent, particularly through its leadership in the East African Community (EAC) and AfCFTA. Equally, the nation has to leverage better foreign policy attributes and the trade integration initiatives for between trade outcomes with her neighbors within the continent.

To ensure sustainable growth, Kenya must carefully evaluate how to maximize the value of its engagements with both China and the U.S. It must ensure that Chinese investments do not result in an over-reliance on China, a common concern in many African countries involved in BRI projects. This requires Kenya to maintain diversified trade relationships, actively pursuing deals with both China and the U.S. that serve its economic interests and its strategic role within Africa.

Kenya’s Strategic Positioning in EAC and AfCFTA

Kenya has a unique positioning with the EAC and AfCFTA which allows the country to be a central factor in defining intra-African trade. The AfCFTA presents an opportunity for Kenya to expand its trade relationships with African countries, particularly as it seeks to mitigate any negative effects of U.S. trade policy. Thus, Kenya can boost its economic resilience by positioning as a central figure in the AfCFTA ensuring that it has access to African markets regardless of the shifts in U.S. trade policies. This can also be a defining element of its participation as a leader in advocating for the inclusion of more African nations in global trade deals, ensuring that the continent’s voice is heard in the corridors of global economic power.

The Long-Term Vision: A Balanced Trade Future

In the Long-term, Kenya has to maintain a strategy that seeks to balance engaging with China’s BRI intentions while also fostering strong relationships with Western trade powers, especially the U.S. This is critical for Kenya’s continued economic growth and its role as a policy, power, and trade leader in East Africa. Kenya’s integration into the AfCFTA and its strategic positioning within the EAC give it the leverage it needs to navigate the pressures of global trade realignment.

The U.S continues to influence world shifts towards multipolarity, Kenya’s foreign policy will need to evolve to reflect its changing role in global trade. With careful diplomacy, strategic partnerships, and a focus on sustainable development, Kenya can continue to thrive at the crossroads of China, the U.S., and Africa, emerging as a key player in the future of global trade.

These are the writer’s own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints of Liberty Sparks. Do you want to publish in this space? Contact our editors at [email protected] for further clarification.